Strategic Intelligence created through an Unknown Unknown approach

We are all familiar with the traditional approaches to knowledge or problems,. The traditional "Intelligence Cycle", for instance, is all about Known Unknowns. We know what we are looking for, and we know that knowledge is missing. Now we have to collect, analyze, produce, and disseminate. Extremely relevant for tactical and operational intelligence, in national security and in business. AI is a force multiplier here.

The age of data has highlighted the value of Unknown Knowns. We have so much data that we don't know it is available. And we have to come up with good questions, or inquiry paths, to make use of this data. In Defense and Intelligence private-sector vendors I work with, this is very powerful when approaching potential clients. AI is also very important here, creating an initial pattern analysis and thus allowing to recognize anomalies.

But this time I wish to discuss my perspective of producing Strategic Intelligence, in national security and in business, through an Unknown Unknown approach. For me, these were the cases where I did not exactly what I was looking for. I just had a general context. And I began to conduct research.

Yes, this line of inquiry takes time. It might not seem efficient. It might not seem structured. It is not always effective. It is what I call "associative reasoning", where I "jump" from one concept to another.

But at the end of the day, it is efficient. And effective. Strategic Intelligence is often (not always) about mysteries, not puzzles or secrets. It is often (not always) about the future, not the present or the past. It is often (not always) a foundation for articulating a strategy, prior to the stage where decision-makers need intelligence to implement their strategy. And this requires some (relatively) unstructured research.

For me, this is mainly a manual research method. But not solely manual. Just in recent months, in my Advisory private sector work, I have used rather basic AI engines just to reveal connections between concepts, between ideas, and between actions. And then, to create new conceptualizations of a business strategy and value proposition.

Once again, for me, it is almost always about the "Middle Road". We don't have to be structured and efficient all the time. But we also can't be vague and too "loose".

This is the advice I would give for managers and executives, in national security and in business, when forming intelligence teams. Create a balance between different approaches to intelligence, different levels of reliance on technologies, and different levels of exeprience.